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60 Білонога В.М., Кияк В.Г.

Bilonoha V.M., Kyyak V.H.
Approaches to monitoring the population of Pinus cembra L. (Pinaceae) in Chornohora massifs
(Ukrainian Carpathians)
Recent studies of the Pinus cembra population in the Ukrainian Carpathians indicate a noticeable
expansion of its range and an increase in population size since the introduction of environmental
protection measures. The abundance of saplings and the rate of their development suggest that the
positive trend in population growth is likely to continue in the near future. However, a crucial question
remains: how long will these favorable conditions persist for P. cembra in the context of climate change
and decreasing anthropogenic pressure? While reduced human impact is beneficial, it also favors other
highly competitive tree species. As a result, climatic changes that are currently favorable for P. cembra
may eventually hinder its recovery. To adequately assess the long-term prospects of P. cembra under
climate change and restorative succession, it is crucial to implement comprehensive, multi-level
monitoring. Such monitoring should take into account its interactions with dominant competing species,
as well as the ecological and biological characteristics, seed dispersal mode, and the dynamics of
seedlings' and saplings' growth. Three hierarchical levels of population monitoring are proposed. The
most basic, methodologically, is inventory monitoring, which comprises two complementary
approaches: assessment of the presence or absence of Pinus cembra individuals along the outer
population boundary; and comprehensive enumeration of individuals across the entire population area.
The first approach provides baseline data on current population boundaries and facilitates the
detection of their temporal shifts. Continuous inventory monitoring enables the characterization of
population spatial structure, including the identification of intra-population components − such as
subpopulations and local population loci, and supports the development of a population distribution
map. The second level involves specialized monitoring studies aimed at quantifying fundamental
population parameters, including density, age composition, spatial organization, phytomass reserves,
and reproductive output. These studies provide insights into the structural and functional attributes of
the population and their temporal variability. The third and most advanced level consists of
demographic monitoring and population viability analysis (PVA). This level entails the systematic
assessment of birth and mortality rates, juvenile survival, reproductive success, and overall
demographic structure. Integrated population censuses combined with PVA yield the most
comprehensive understanding of population dynamics, enabling the prediction of future trends and the
evaluation of long-term viability and conservation prospects.
Keywords: Pinus cembra, population, Carpathians, Chornogora, monitoring.